Working draft — structure + directional ranges (see
market-research-synthesis.md). Numbers are starting ranges to validate, not facts. Modelled in GBP (UK home base + expat beachhead; many expat hubs are naturally cash-pay). Bootstrapped lens: optimise for contribution-margin-positive growth and CAC payback, gated by Stage 0 (§0a). Last updated: [PLACEHOLDER: date]
0. Benchmark ranges (directional — validate before relying)
| Driver | Starting range | Confidence | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Session price (P) — UK | ~£40–60 | 🟡 directional | Faresay's actual UK list price (~£40–55) |
| Session price (P) — expat hub | ~£90–150 | 🟡 estimate | Internationally mobile professionals, private-pay, less price-sensitive — [RESEARCH NEEDED per corridor] |
| Take rate (t) | 15% (10% founding) | 🟢 fixed | Low vs rivals' 20–30% → volume/retention must carry it |
| Sessions per client (S) | model 6–12 as a band | 🟡 estimate | Drive with retention |
| Blended CAC | niche-lowered, model ≤ £100 | 🟡 target | Expat communities/referrals/SEO → lower than paid-generalist CAC; Stage 0 caps it at £100 |
| Payment processing | ~2.9% + £0.30 | 🟡 standard | Processor-dependent |
| LTV:CAC target | ≥ 3 | — | Standard bar |
| CAC payback target | ≤ ~4 sessions | — | Stage 0 gate |
Why the expat price point matters financially (not just for marketing): a 15% take on a £55 UK session nets ~£8.25 (~£6.35 after card processing). At £120 (expat hub) it nets ~£18 (~£14.20 after processing) — more than double the contribution per session. The niche is what makes the unit economics close (see §0a).
0a. Stage 0 — the proof-of-concept gate (model this explicitly)
Before any geographic expansion, Faresay must hit (per business-plan.md §11):
| Stage 0 target | Value |
|---|---|
| Verified therapists | 25 |
| Paying clients | 100 |
| Blended CAC | < £100 |
| CAC payback | within ~4 sessions |
| Month-2 retention | > 60% |
The honest tension to model: "CAC < £100" and "payback ≤ ~4 sessions" only co-hold at a high-enough price/contribution. Payback sessions = CAC ÷ contribution-per-session:
| Price (15% take) | Contribution/session (after proc.) | Max CAC for ≤4-session payback | £100 CAC pays back in |
|---|---|---|---|
| £55 (UK) | ~£6.35 | ~£25 | ~16 sessions ❌ |
| £90 | ~£10.95 | ~£44 | ~9 sessions |
| £120 (expat base) | ~£14.20 | ~£57 | ~7 sessions |
| £150 | ~£17.45 | ~£70 | ~6 sessions |
Read: at UK price points the two Stage-0 targets conflict (4-session payback implies CAC ≈ £25, not £100). They reconcile at expat-hub price points (£90–150) and/or higher sessions-per-client. This is the quantitative case for the expat beachhead: higher contribution per session plus niche-driven lower CAC is what lets the model pay back fast. Stage 0 proves it empirically on 25 therapists / 100 clients before scaling spend.
1. Model philosophy
Cash-pay marketplace. Revenue = 15% of session fees. Hinges on (a) liquidity (bookings per corridor), (b) unit economics (CAC vs LTV), (c) retention (sessions per client). Bootstrapped → low fixed costs; contribution margin funds growth; Stage 0 gates expansion.
2. Revenue drivers
| Driver | Symbol | Placeholder | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg session price | P | [ASSUMPTION: £ per session — UK vs expat hub] | benchmark §0 |
| Platform take rate | t | 15% (10% founding) | fixed (CONTEXT) |
| Revenue per session | P × t | = derived | — |
| Sessions per client (lifetime) | S | [ASSUMPTION: # sessions] | retention |
| Active clients | N | model output | growth model |
| Month-2 retention | r | [ASSUMPTION: % — Stage 0 > 60%] | gate |
Revenue ≈ N × S × P × t. Sensitivity highest on S (sessions/client), P (corridor price), and N (acquisition).
3. Unit economics (per client)
| Metric | Formula | Placeholder |
|---|---|---|
| GMV/client | S × P | derived |
| Net revenue/client | S × P × t | derived |
| CAC | blended acquisition £ / new client | [ASSUMPTION — Stage 0 < £100] |
| Payment processing | ~2.9% + £0.30 of each session | processor pricing |
| Contribution/client (LTV) | net rev − processing − support | derived |
| LTV:CAC | target ≥ 3:1 | derived |
| CAC payback | CAC ÷ contribution-per-session | target ≤ ~4 sessions |
⚠️ CAC is the make-or-break number (R-17). The expat niche is the primary CAC lever (community, referral, intent SEO) and the price lever (higher corridor price). Both push the model toward the Stage-0 bar.
4. Cost structure (bootstrapped)
- Variable: CAC/marketing, payment processing, telehealth video, licensure-verification per provider.
- Semi-fixed: hosting/infra, support, trust & safety.
- Fixed/step: compliance per corridor (UK now; cross-border legal mapping per expat hub as opened — not all markets up front; US MSO/friendly-PC machinery only if/when a US phase is triggered), insurance (tech/cyber E&O), core team, software.
- Compliance is a phased step-cost per corridor, tied to the expat rollout — model it that way.
5. Projection structure (in financial-model.csv)
- Granularity: monthly Stage 0 + Y1; quarterly/annual thereafter.
- Geography rollout: UK base → Stage 0 gate → first expat corridor(s) → further corridors (each gated by per-corridor legal mapping). Not a US-state machine.
- Build-up: new clients/month → active clients (retention) → sessions → GMV → net revenue → minus variable costs → contribution → minus fixed/compliance → EBITDA/cash → runway.
- Scenarios: Conservative / Base (expat hub) / Stretch.
- Outputs: monthly cash & runway, Stage 0 gate check, break-even, LTV:CAC by cohort.
6. Key questions the model answers
- At what CAC and sessions-per-client does Faresay clear the Stage 0 gate per corridor?
- What price point does a corridor need so CAC < £100 pays back in ≤ ~4 sessions?
- How much runway before contribution covers fixed costs?
- Is 15% sufficient, or are premium/B2B lines needed for target margins?
7. The working calculator (financial-model.csv)
A live scenario calculator (Google Sheets/Excel) — OUTPUT rows recompute as you edit INPUTS: 1. Unit-economics calculator — Base (expat hub) / Conservative / Stretch inputs (price, take, sessions/client, CAC, processing, support) → contribution/session, LTV, LTV:CAC, CAC payback in sessions, max CAC for 3:1. 2. Stage 0 gate check — flags whether each scenario clears CAC < £100 and ≤4-session payback. 3. Break-even frontier — max affordable CAC across price × sessions-per-client (GBP). 4. Illustrative Stage 0 ramp — a worked path to 100 paying clients and the Y1 cash burn.
The headline finding (the honest one)
At a £120 expat-hub session and 15% take, Faresay nets ~£18/session (~£14.20 after processing). Over 8 sessions lifetime contribution is ~£104, so CAC under ~£35 hits 3:1, and CAC under ~£57 pays back within 4 sessions. Implications: - The 15% model is tight but workable at expat price points — and not workable at UK prices via paid acquisition (£55 × 15% needs sub-£25 CAC for a 4-session payback). So: higher-price corridors + low (niche/organic/referral) CAC + retention is the whole game. - This is the quantitative case for the expat beachhead and the GTM emphasis on community/ referral acquisition, and for keeping insurance-enablement / higher-take as a later option.
Still to tune (with Faresay's own data)
- Replace P (per corridor), S, CAC, fixed-cost and ramp assumptions with actual UK + first-corridor numbers.
- Reconcile compliance step-costs with per-corridor legal mapping (not US-50-state).
- Add cohort-level retention accounting for monthly active-client precision.