Why this doc exists: a six-perspective review (investor, VC, lawyer, competitor, critic, operator) independently reached the same conclusion — the whole company rests on one unvalidated number, and you can test it this week for under £200. Don't seed therapists, build features, or pay for per-corridor legal until this passes. Last updated: [PLACEHOLDER: date]
The one assumption that decides everything
That English-speaking expats will (a) pay ~£120/session and (b) be acquirable at a CAC under ~£57
through organic/community/referral. Everything downstream (the 15% model, Stage 0, the expat pivot)
is a hypothesis stacked on this. It currently has zero sourced data (market-research-synthesis.md
§2.5; financial-model.md §0). If real willingness-to-pay clears at £70–80, or CAC lands at £150
(normal for cash-pay mental health), the model is underwater — and no amount of building fixes it.
Test design — a concierge / fake-door, not a product
Build nothing. No platform. No panel. Stand up the smallest thing that produces real buying signal.
- One landing page for the legally-cleanest corridor (see
cross-border-legal-gate.md— not necessarily Tokyo). Real positioning, real £120 price shown, real CTA: "Book a free 15-min consult." [PLACEHOLDER: corridor + domain/subdomain.] - CTA → a Calendly the founder personally answers. You are the concierge: you do the consult, you hand-match to 1–3 real therapists you've lined up informally, you take the first payment manually (Stripe payment link). No code.
- Drive traffic two ways, instrumented separately (so you can read each channel's true cost):
- Organic: genuine posts/answers in 3–5 corridor expat communities + one founder LinkedIn post.
Cost = time. (Heed the anti-self-promo reality —
gtm-strategy.md: ask admins, add value, don't spam.) - Paid: £150 of Google Ads on exact high-intent terms ("English speaking therapist"). Measure cost-per-booked-consult directly.
What to measure (the funnel tracker)
| Stage | Organic | Paid | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spend (£ / hours) | keep separate per channel | ||
| Landing-page visitors | from analytics | ||
| Enquiries / consult bookings | the real signal | ||
| Consults held | founder-run | ||
| Paid first sessions @ £120 | the only number that matters | ||
| Second sessions booked | early retention proxy | ||
| Cost per booked consult | paid CAC read | ||
| Cost per paying client | the headline |
A landing page that converts visitors→enquiry at 2–4% is strong for cash-pay therapy. Below ~1% the offer/trust/price is wrong, not the channel.
Decision rules (set before you start — no moving the goalposts)
- KILL the thesis if, after ~3 weeks: fewer than ~10 booked consults organically → the cheap, high-trust acquisition engine the whole plan assumes does not exist. Stop, save 12 months.
- PAID won't pay back if cost-per-booked-consult is already > £57 before the consult→paid drop-off → paid can't carry it; you need organic to work or you stop.
- PRICE is dead if consults book but nobody pays £120 after the free call → the £120
assumption (the load-bearing wall of
financial-model.md) is false. - PASS = a handful of real people pay £120 and book a second session from acquisition that projects to a blended CAC under ~£57. Only then is seeding supply + clearing corridor legal worth spend.
Landing-page copy skeleton (starting point)
- Headline: Therapy that understands international life.
- Sub: English-speaking, verified therapists for [expats in
]. Book a free 15-minute consult. - Trust line: Every therapist is licensed, identity-verified and personally interviewed by our founder.
- Price (shown): £120 / 50-min session · money-back first session · cancel free 24h ahead.
- Founder line + photo: "I'm [name], an expat myself. I personally vet every therapist. Here's my email."
- CTA: Book your free consult → [Calendly].
What this deliberately does NOT do
No platform build, no 25-therapist panel, no per-corridor legal spend, no paid scaling, no second corridor. Those all come after a pass. The point is to risk £200 and two weeks, not six months.
If it passes — the next three moves (in order)
- Cross-border legal memo for that corridor (
cross-border-legal-gate.md) before any supply spend. - Seed 5–6 founding therapists who bring a client book; concentrate demand on them (
gtm-strategy.md). - Run the 30-day operator plan (
gtm-strategy.md§8) on the proven funnel.
Linked documents
financial-model.md(the £120 / CAC math this tests) ·gtm-strategy.md(the funnel + 30-day plan)cross-border-legal-gate.md(corridor choice) ·market-research-synthesis.md(the unsourced gaps)