Validation Experiment — Setup Runbook

The hands-on steps to run the demand test in validation-experiment.md. Mode chosen: demand-only, corridor-agnostic — measure intent + price tolerance + CAC with no therapy delivered and zero legal exposure during the test. Assets live in faresay/validation/ (index.html landing page, funnel-tracker.csv). Budget: ~£150 + a domain. Last updated: [PLACEHOLDER: date]

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What we're measuring (and the honest promise)

• Intent — Lead event (early-list signup).
• Price tolerance — PriceIntent_120 event (clicked "Reserve my first session" at the £120 price).
• CAC — cost per lead, organic vs paid.

No session is delivered. Everyone who reserves is told honestly they're on a priority list, with no charge. This sidesteps the cross-border legal gate entirely for the test phase.

Setup checklist (≈ an afternoon)

1. Edit the landing page (3 placeholders)

Open faresay/validation/index.html, replace: - PLAUSIBLE_DOMAIN → the domain you'll deploy to (e.g. try.faresay.com). - FORM_ENDPOINT → your lead-capture POST URL (see step 3). (Left as-is, the page still works and shows the thank-you — it just won't store emails. Set it so you capture leads.) - [FOUNDER_NAME] / [FOUNDER_EMAIL] → your name + a real reply address. (Swap the JH avatar initials too, or drop in a real photo <img>.)

2. Deploy it (pick one — all free)

• Netlify Drop (easiest): drag the faresay/validation/ folder onto app.netlify.com/drop → instant URL.
• Vercel: vercel in the folder, or import as a static project.
• GitHub Pages / Cloudflare Pages: point at the folder.
• Optional: add a subdomain like try.faresay.com (CNAME to the host) so it's on-brand.

3. Lead capture (one of)

• Formspree (formspree.io) or Basin — create a form, paste its POST URL into FORM_ENDPOINT. The page submits via fetch and shows the inline thank-you. Leads land in your inbox/dashboard.
• Tally / Google Form — alternatively embed one and skip FORM_ENDPOINT.

4. Analytics — Plausible (you already use it)

• Add the deploy domain as a site in Plausible.
• Create two custom-event goals: Lead and PriceIntent_120 (and optionally CTA_Hero).
• That's it — the page already fires these events.

5. Paid traffic — Google Ads (£150 cap)

• New Search campaign, objective Leads, £5–10/day (≈ £150 over 3 weeks).
• Conversion: import the Plausible Lead goal, or set a Google Ads conversion on the thank-you state. Track cost per lead directly.
• Geo: target English-speaking expat hubs (e.g. Japan, Singapore, UAE, Hong Kong, major EU cities) — language: English.
• Keywords (exact/phrase), broad-expat intent:
• english speaking therapist abroad, therapist for expats, online therapy for expats, expat therapy, english speaking counsellor abroad, therapy living abroad, expat mental health, culture shock therapy, relocation stress therapy.
• Ad copy (starting point):
• H: Therapy that understands expat life · English-speaking, verified therapists
• D: Living abroad is hard. Talk to a therapist who gets it — verified, English-speaking, in your timezone. Join the early list.
• Negative keywords: free, jobs, training, course, salary.

6. Organic traffic (founder time — heed the rules)

• Reddit/Facebook expat communities ban self-promo. Do NOT drop links. Build standing: answer real questions for a week, then either (a) ask an admin's permission for one value-add post, or (b) put the link only where rules allow (some subs have a "promo" day / classifieds thread).
• LinkedIn: one founder post — why expat mental health is hard + the early-list link.
• Tag organic traffic with a UTM (e.g. ?utm_source=reddit) so Plausible separates it from paid.

7. Run for ~3 weeks, log weekly in funnel-tracker.csv

Fill organic vs paid each week; the OUTPUT rows compute conversion %, cost per lead, cost per price-intent.

Decision rules (set now — don't move them)

• KILL (thesis): < ~10 leads organically in 3 weeks → the cheap high-trust engine doesn't exist.
• KILL (paid): paid cost-per-lead > ~£40 before any delivery → paid can't carry it.
• KILL (price): leads sign up but PriceIntent_120 rate ≈ 0 → £120 willingness-to-pay is false.
• PASS: ≥ ~20 leads and Lead→Price-intent > ~25% and blended cost-per-lead projects a CAC < ~£57 → proceed.

If it PASSES — next three moves (in order)

1. Cross-border legal memo for the cleanest corridor (cross-border-legal-gate.md) before any supply spend.
2. Seed 5–6 founding therapists who bring a client book; concentrate demand (gtm-strategy.md).
3. Run the 30-day operator plan (gtm-strategy.md §8) on the proven funnel.

Ethics / safety notes

• Be honest: no charge, priority list, "not a crisis service" stated on the page and thank-you.
• Don't collect more data than email + (optional) country + free-text. Don't store anything sensitive.
• If a respondent signals crisis, reply pointing to local emergency/crisis resources — do not attempt support.

Linked documents

• validation-experiment.md (the why + kill/pass) · gtm-strategy.md (funnel + 30-day plan)
• cross-border-legal-gate.md (corridor choice for after a pass) · financial-model.md (£120/CAC math)
• Assets: faresay/validation/index.html · faresay/validation/funnel-tracker.csv